# Prospective local analysis plan — version 1

Recorded 2026-09-05 UTC, before downloading either dataset or examining individual outcomes. This is a local time-stamped analysis plan, not an independently registered preregistration. Literature and database documentation were examined first. Seed: 20260905. Aim: two unreviewed AI-assisted computational replication/robustness papers for Australis Biogenetics; no human author, peer review, or therapeutic efficacy claimed.

## Paper 1: maturation and mammalian longevity

Hypothesis: log female maturity age is positively associated with log maximum longevity conditional on log adult mass and mammalian order. Source: official AnAge stable downloadable export, CC BY 3.0. Unit: species; Mammalia only, positive nonmissing female maturity (days), adult weight (g), maximum longevity (years), known order/family. No imputation. Primary quality restriction: acceptable or higher if the database provides this scale; document exact coding before analysis. Remove duplicate identifiers, flag contradictory duplicates rather than choose outcomes. Primary OLS with order fixed intercepts; family-clustered uncertainty with finite-cluster correction and t reference. Primary estimand: log maturity coefficient and percent longevity difference per doubling. Taxonomic adjustment is not a phylogenetic model and does not eliminate phylogenetic dependence.

Prespecified robustness: unadjusted and body-mass-only models; family fixed intercepts; remove humans; remove bats and primates; higher-quality records only; restrict longevity records to captivity if enough data; leave-one-order-out coefficient range. Compare baseline mass+order model against added maturity using family-blocked five-fold validation with shared deterministic folds, reporting log-scale RMSE and paired errors. This is internal validation, not an independent cohort. Check influential observations, maturity exceeding lifespan, missingness, and model rank. No retrospective exclusions based on coefficient direction. If pathological values are found, show with/without flagged cases.

## Paper 2: endpoint attenuation in DrugAge

Hypothesis: within experiments reporting both endpoints, maximum-lifespan percent changes are smaller than average/median-lifespan percent changes. Source: official DrugAge CSV export, CC BY 3.0. All species retained but separately report worms, flies and mice; other species pooled descriptively. Unit of primary inference: publication, identified by PubMed ID or equivalent source identifier. Drop exact duplicate rows with count; preserve replicate/dose/sex rows otherwise. Include paired numeric finite endpoints with nonmissing publication. Treat blanks as missing, never zero. Flag changes <= -100% as nonphysical for sensitivity inspection, not automatic result-driven exclusions.

Primary estimand: mean of publication-specific mean paired differences (maximum minus average/median, percentage points), giving each publication equal weight. Report 95% publication bootstrap percentile CI (10,000 resamples), two-sided one-sample t test on publication means, median and sign distribution. Do not claim inverse-variance meta-analysis: standard errors, shared controls and full survival curves are unavailable. Sensitivities: row-weighted and compound-balanced estimates; leave-one-publication-out range; median publication difference; log response-ratio contrast for changes > -100%; species-specific publication summaries (worms, flies, mice) with Holm correction over three tests. Report endpoint missingness and average/median effects in paired vs unpaired records descriptively, not as evidence of random missingness. If fewer than 20 paired publications, downgrade to descriptive research and report feasibility limitation. Selection into DrugAge favors at least one positive result; conclusions concern its curated records, not all drugs or humans.

## Shared verification and reporting

Apply Holm correction to the TWO primary hypothesis p values together; sensitivity tests are not new confirmatory claims. Save all raw bytes, download URLs/time/build information/license, SHA-256 hashes, filtering counts, included rows, numeric outputs, software versions, code, seeds and this plan. No private human participant data are needed. Verify central calculations with an independently implemented numerical route; audit high-impact citations against primary papers and check a small prespecified set of source records (first/middle/last eligible publications and species in sorted order) where accessible. Record access limitations. Existing literature already addresses both broad hypotheses; describe contribution as updated reproducible robustness analysis, not a first discovery. Do not overstate novelty or independence. All deviations must be recorded before executing changed analysis when possible. Null results are publishable.
